Are We Over the Worst of the Credit Crunch? (late 2008)

Over the last year we've seen economic boom turn to bust in what the media has called the Credit Crunch or the Global Economic Crisis.

The last boom was the dot-com boom which started around the end of 1996 and was driven by massive investor enthusiasm in the emerging technology of the Internet. It was thought that this new technology would revolutionise business, boosting profits and making even start-up Internet companies worth a fortune.

The FTSE 100 almost doubled, increasing nearly 100% in 3 years, but the bubble peaked at the end of 1999 and the bust began. Perhaps exacerbated by the 9/11 attacks in 2001, it finally reached its lowest point in 2003, at less than half of its highest high, down over 50%.

From 2003 to 2004, the FTSE 100 began to grow rapidly again, although not quite as fast as in the previous bubble. However, in 2004 another bubble began to emerge and the FTSE 100 shot up to its 2007 high which was again an increase of over 100%. Perhaps this 100% increase was driven by a renewed enthusiasm for the Internet, but this time there seem to have been other reasons. Mortgage lenders in the US had not been cautious in their lending and suddenly things began to change very rapidly.

House prices which had also seen very high year on year growth began to stagnate and at last began to fall, although slowly at first. People began to default on their mortgages. One-by-one the big financial institutions began to announce they were in financial trouble, and along with large corporates all over the world, began to ask the governments for help. The next bust began.

So here we are at the end of 2008, the FTSE 100 has already dropped around 45%, and now seems like very good value. Large financials that were announcing serious difficulties almost daily at the start of the bust seem to be stable now and the rate at which other large companies are announcing difficulties has slowed right down.

In financial markets, the price often reflects the information that is public. Assuming that no more disastrous news emerges, and assuming that this most recent bubble is similar to the last, it seems that we could be within 5% of the bottom of the bust, or could even have passed it already.

Yes, the last bust lasted roughly 3 years, but this time we've dropped almost as far in just 1 year. It looks like 2009 may be the start of the recovery and the beginning of another economic boom!

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Ubuntu 8.10 Released!

At Antropy Consulting we're very fond of Open Source software and that's why it excites us when a new version Ubuntu is released.

Ubuntu is arguably the most popular distribution of Linux and it just gets more user-friendly with every version. This latest version doesn't disappoint.

As well as improved support for dual-monitors (and let's be honest, who doesn't have 2 these days?!) there are numerous other bug fixes as well.

With growing disappointment with Windows Vista, and Windows 7 some time away, Ubuntu could be a viable and free alternative for all manner of professionals.

To read more, and try out this version for yourself, visit the Ubuntu website.

GoboLinux

If you've ever wondered why when you install a program on Windows, it scatters files all over your computer and adds data to your registry and thought "there must be a cleaner way," GoboLinux is worth a look.

The guys behind GoboLinux have simplified things considerably and created a distribution of Linux where each piece of software you install is contained within just one folder. The really clever bit is that through a system of symbolic links, GoboLinux is still compatible with the Unix standard and most Linux software should run without modification!

More information can be found on the GoboLinux website.